CMP 슬러리, 패드, 컨디셔너 2021년판 – Techcet

출판 : Techcet 출판년월 : 2021년08월

・CMP Slurry / Pads / Conditioners

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Techcet「CMP Slurry, Pads, & Conditioners」은 CMP 슬러리, 패드, 컨디셔너 시장을 조사 · 분석하고, 기술 관련 정보 및 기업 정보를 게재하고 있습니다.

Consumables Industry Feeling a Swell in Demand

CMP Slurry and Pad Market Forecasted 13% Growth for 2021
San Diego, CA, January 6, 2022:  TECHCET—the electronic materials advisory firm — announced that CMP consumables demand is surging upward as device makers continue to push up production, and equipment suppliers scramble to build their backlog. “Shipments of CMP pads and slurries are at a 10-year high,” states Lita Shon-Roy, President of TECHCET.

The 2021 revenue forecast for the CMP slurry market is a TAM US$1.89 B growing 13% over 2020, with a 5-yr CAGR 8.8%; from TECHCET’s analysis of CMP Pads & Slurry markets. The strongest segments are Cobalt and PolySi slurry, while the Cu, Tungsten, and Oxide segments hold the largest revenue. Under normal market conditions prices are being driven down by competition and pressure from device makers persists in attempts to reduce costs. However, during this high growth period, we expect prices to hold steady or increase slightly. Slurries for advanced products will support higher prices because they are not as readily available.

The 2021 revenue forecast for the CMP pad market is a TAM of US$1.15B, also growing 13% year over year. A 6.2% CAGR is expected (2020 to 2025); lower growth than the slurry market due to increased pad life and price competition from China. The largest growth segments include Cobalt and PolySi pads, while oxide, tungsten, and Cu bulk pads make up the majority of the revenues. Due to the strength of the major shareholders like DuPont and Cabot in the pad market, pad prices will hold firm. However, if the new entrants in China are starting to gain position in their local market, which will lead to price competition in China. As for other process materials, shipping costs of CMP consumables have dramatically increased, which will be passed on to the customer.

Supply Chain Concerns:

  • Transportation delays, huge price increases for overseas shipments, warehousing challenges are all resulting in higher costs and quality issues for some slurries.
  • Equipment suppliers are seeing long-lead times on sub-components and some process materials which are slowing down the expansion plans of device makers.
  • Higher than expected materials demand is making the supply-chain tight and may ultimately result in shortages
  • Increasing dependencies on Asian suppliers of chemicals pose a greater risk of supply-interruption given ongoing logistics problems caused by persistent COVID19 and variants.

ABOUT TECHCET:  TECHCET CA LLC is an advisory services firm focused on process materials supply-chains, electronic materials business, and materials market analysis for the semiconductor, display, solar/PV, and LED industries. Since 2000, the company has been responsible for producing the Critical Material Reports™, covering silicon wafers, semiconductor gases, wet chemicals, CMP consumables, Photoresists, and ALD/CVD Precursors. The Critical Materials Council (CMC) of semiconductor fabricators is a business service offered by TECHCET, and includes materials supplier Associate Members. 


목차

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
1.1 2021 CMP PADS AND SLURRIES 9
1.2 KEY POINTS 10
1.3 CMP CONSUMABLES REVENUES 11
1.4 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 12
1.5 CMP CONSUMABLES TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 13
1.6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 14
1.7 SLURRY SUPPIER MARKET SHARES 15
1.8 CMP PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 16
1.9 EHS ISSUES/CONCERNS 17
1.10 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 18
2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 19
2.1 SCOPE 20
2.2 PURPOSE 21
2.3 METHODOLOGY 22
2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 23
3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET OUTLOOK 24
3.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS & OUTLOOK 25
3.2 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 26
3.2.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 28
3.2.2 SEMICONDUCTOR SALES GROWTH 29
3.2.3 TAIWAN MONTHLY SALES TRENDS 30
3.2.4 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 31
3.2.5 SEMICONDUCTOR UNITS AND WAFER SHIPMENT GROWTH FORECAST 32
3.3 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 33
3.3.1 SMARTPHONES 34
3.3.2 PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 35
3.3.3 AUTOMOTIVE SALES 36
3.3.3.1 AUTOMOTIVE SALES AND IMPACT ON SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 37
3.3.3.2 ELECTRIC VEHICLE (EV) MARKET TRENDS 38
3.3.3.3 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 39
3.3.3.4 SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT BY AUTOMOTIVE ELECTRONIC SYSTEM 40
3.3.4 SERVERS / IT 41
3.3.4.1 SERVERS / IT, CONTINUED – FORECASTS 42
3.4 SEMICONDUCTOR FABRICATION GROWTH & EXPANSION 43
3.4.1 SEMICONDUCTOR UNITS AND WAFER SHIPMENT GROWTH FORECAST 44
3.4.2 EQUIPMENT SPENDING TRENDS3.4.2.1 RECENT INVESTMENT
AND FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 45
3.4.2.1 Recent Investment and Fab/Plant Expansion Activity 48
3.4.3 OVERALL CHINA MARKET TRENDS 50
3.5 POLICY & TRADE TRENDS AND IMPACT 52
3.5.1 POLICY AND TRADE ISSUES 53
3.5.2 U.S. CHIPS ACT 55
3.5.3 OTHER SEMICONDUCTOR FUNDING ACTIVITY 56
3.6 SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 57
3.6.1 LEADING EDGE NODES DRIVE MATERIALS GROWTH 58
3.6.2 SEMICONDUCTOR PROCESS MATERIALS MARKET FORECAST 59
3.6.3 TECHCET FORECAST METHODOLOGY 60
4 CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET TRENDS 61
4.1 CMP MARKET DRIVERS 62
4.2 MATERIAL SUPPLY CHAIN RISKS & CONSTRAINTS 63
4.3 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 64
4.3.1 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 66
4.3.2 TECHNICAL TRENDS IN SIC 70
4.4 REGIONAL TRENDS/DRIVERS 74
4.5 EHS, LOGISTIC PACKAGING & RECLAIM ISSUES 78
4.5.1 EHS & SDS DISCLOSURES 79
4.5.2 LOGISTIC AND PACKAGING ISSUES 80
4.5.3 DISPOSAL / RECLAIM 81
5 CMP SLURRY MARKET LANDSCAPE 82
5.1 CMP SLURRY M&A ACTIVITY 83
5.2 NEW CMP SLURRY PLANTS AND NEW ENTRANTS 84
5.3 CMP SLURRY PLANT CLOSURES AND PRODUCT DISCONTINUATIONS 85
5.4 NEW CMP SLURRY ENTRANTS 86
5.5 SLURRY SUPPLIERS OR PARTS/PRODUCT LINE THAT ARE
AT RISK OF DISCONTINUATIONS 87
5.6 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS 88
5.6.1 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS FOR COMMON SLURRIES 89
5.6.2 CMP SLURRY PRICING TRENDS FOR ADVANCED INTEGRATIONS 90
5.7 CMP SLURRY MARKET LANDSCAPE 91
5.7.1 CMP SLURRY MARKET OVERVIEW 92
5.7.2 MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 93
5.7.3 APPLICATION SEGMENTS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL REVENUES 94
5.7.4 SLURRY VOLUME $ BY APPLICATION 95
5.7.5 SLURRY MARKET TRENDS 96
5.7.6 MARKET SIZE SLURRY APPLICATION 97
5.7.7 MARKET SHARE BY SLURRY APPLICATION 98
5.7.7.1 OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRIES – MARKET SHARES 99
5.7.7.2 HKMG SLURRIES 100
5.7.7.3 POLYSILICON SLURRIES 103
5.7.7.4 OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRIES 105
5.7.7.5 TUNGSTEN SLURRIES 106
5.7.7.6 COBALT SLURRIES 108
5.7.7.7 COPPER BULK SLURRIES 110
5.7.7.8 COPPER BARRIER SLURRIES 113
5.8 SUPPLIER MARKET SHARES 115
5.9 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY CONCERNS 116
5.10 ANALYST ASSESSMENT AND SLURRY SUMMARY 117
5.11 SLURRY RAW MATERIAL SOURCES 121
5.11.1 SLURRY RAW MATERIAL SOURCES 122
5.11.2 RAW SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTORS 123
5.11.3 RAW MATERIALS M&A ACTIVITY-NONE 125
5.11.4 RAW MATERIAL EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 126
5.11.5 TO 5.11.8 MARKET RESEARCH INDICATE
NO CHANGE IN ACTIVITY 127
5.11.9 RAW MATERIAL PRICING TRENDS 128
6 CMP PAD MARKET LANDSCAPE 129
6.1 PAD SUPPLY CHAIN M&A ACTIVITY 130
6.2 NEW PAD PLANTS AND NEW ENTRANTS 131
6.3 PAD PLANT CLOSURES-NONE 133
6.4 NEW PAD SUPPLY CHAIN ENTRANTS-NONE 134
6.5 SUPPLIERS OR PADS AT RISK OF DISCONTINUANCE 136
6.6 CMP PAD MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 137
6.6.1 CMP Pad Market Overview 138
6.6.2 CMP Pad Market Size and Forecast 139
6.7 CMP PAD MARKET SHARE 144
6.8 CMP PAD SUB-TIER 147
6.8.1 MANUFACTURING COST DRIVERS 148
6.9 CMP PAD MARKET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 150
7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 155
Ace NanoChem
Anji micro Shanghai
Asahi Glass
BASF
Cabot Microelectronics
Dupont
Eminess Technologies, Inc.
Ferro
FujiFilm Planar Solutions
Fujimi Corp.
Hitachi Chemical
JSR Corporation
KC Tech Company
Nalco Company (Ecolab)
NITTA DuPont Incorporated (Nita-Haas)
Sinmat
Versum (Merck KGaA/EMD/AZ)
Abrasive Technology
Ehwa Diamond
Kinik
Saesol Diamond
Shinhan Diamond Industrial Co.
3M
Cabot electronic materials
Fujibo Holdings, Inc.
IV Technologies Co
Rogers Corp
Sekisui Voltek
Thomas West, Inc. (TWI)
Baikowski
Cabot Corporation
Eka Chemical/Akzo Nobel/ Nouryon
Elchem ASA
Evonik Industries AG
Fuso Chemical Company
General Engineering & Research
W.R. Grace & Company
Merck KGaA/EMD/AZ
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co/Mitsui Kinzoku
Nanophase Technologies Corporation
Precision Colloids
Saint Gobain
Showa Denko
Solvay
UK ABRASIVES
Wacker Chemie AG
8 HISTORICAL SUMMARY OF COMPANY MERGERS AND REFERENCES FOR THE READER 350
APPENDIX 354
TABLE OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: CMP CONSUMABLES MARKET SIZE 9
FIGURE 2: CMP PAD AND SLURRY SUPPLIERS SHARE AS A % OF
TOTAL REVENUES 14
FIGURE 3: 2020 OVERALL SLURRY MARKET SHARE BY SUPPLIER 15
FIGURE 4: CMP PAD MARKET SHARE 16
FIGURE 5: GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRONICS
SUPPLY CHAIN (2020) 28
FIGURE 6: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES 29
FIGURE 7: WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR SALES
(TSMC, UMC, VIS, ASE, CHIPMOS, KYEC) 30
FIGURE 8: SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES 2021 31
FIGURE 9: SEMICONDUCTOR WAFER AREA SHIPMENTS 32
FIGURE 10: SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP APPLICATIONS 33
FIGURE 11: MOBILE PHONE SHIPMENTS WW ESTIMATES 34
FIGURE 12: PC NOTEBOOK SHIPMENTS 35
FIGURE 13 : U.S. AUTOMOTIVE SALES 36
FIGURE 14: MONTHLY AUTOMOTIVE SALES TRENDS 37
FIGURE 15: GLOBAL EV TRENDS 38
FIGURE 16: SEMICONDUCTOR SPEND PER VEHICLE TYPE 39
FIGURE 17: SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT BY AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATION 40
FIGURE 18: AMAZON SERVER FARM 41
FIGURE 19: SEMICONDUCTOR WAFER AREA SHIPMENTS 44
FIGURE 20: 3-MONTH AVERAGE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT BILLINGS 45
FIGURE 21: CAPITAL SPENDING TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY NODE 46
FIGURE 22: OVERVIEW OF LOGIC ROADMAP TRENDS 47
FIGURE 23: CHINA IC MARKET AND PRODUCTION TRENDS 50
FIGURE 24: ADVANCED NODES WAFER START HISTORY AND FORECAST 58
FIGURE 25: GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS OUTLOOK 59
FIGURE 26: INCREASING IMPACT OF MATERIALS INNOVATION ON
CHIP PERFORMANCE 65
FIGURE 27: ADVANCED PACKAGING ROADMAP 67
FIGURE 28: CMP OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED PACKAGING 68
FIGURE 29: RDL CHALLENGES FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING 69
FIGURE 30: SIC DEVICE MARKET GROWTH 72
FIGURE 31: SILICON CARBIDE DEVICE MARKET FOR VARIOUS GREEN
ENERGY APPLICATIONS 73
FIGURE 32: JUNE 2021 CMP SLURRY REVENUE BY APPLICATION
2020-2025 CAGR 5.3% 93
FIGURE 33: SLURRY APPLICATIONS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL REVENUES
ESTIMATE (PIE CHART) 94
FIGURE 34: SLURRY VOLUME $ BY APPLICATION 95
FIGURE 35: OXIDE (CERIA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 99
FIGURE 36: HKMG/FRONT-END SLURRY MARKET SHARES 100
FIGURE 37: MEMS CMP CROSS SECTION 103
FIGURE 38: POLYSILICON SLURRY MARKET SHARES 104
FIGURE 39: OXIDE (SILICA) SLURRY MARKET SHARES 105
FIGURE 40: TUNGSTEN SLURRY MARKET SHARES 106
FIGURE 41: COBALT SLURRY MARKET SHARES 108
FIGURE 42: CU-BULK SLURRY MARKET SHARES 110
FIGURE 43: CU-BARRIER CMP SLURRY MARKET SHARE 113
FIGURE 44: 2020 OVERALL SLURRY MARKET SHARE BY SUPPLIER 115
FIGURE 45: SLURRY REVENUE (% OF TAM) BY APPLICATION 117
FIGURE 46: 2021 CMP PAD REVENUE FORECAST BY WAFER SIZE 140
FIGURE 47: 2021 CMP PAD REVENUE FORECAST BY WAFER SIZE 141
FIGURE 48: 2021 300 MM CMP PAD FORECAST BY PROCESS 142
FIGURE 49: 2021 200 MM CMP PAD FORECAST BY PROCESS 143
FIGURE 50: 2021 CMP PAD SUPPLIER MARKET SHARE 145
FIGURE 51: PAD COST STRUCTURE 149
FIGURE 52: CMP FOR IC MANUFACTURING PROCESS 355
FIGURE 53: IC1000 LIKE PAD CROSS-SECTION 366
FIGURE 54: IC1000 SEM CROSS-SECTION 367
TABLES
TABLE 1: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 10
TABLE 2: GLOBAL GDP AND SEMICONDUCTOR REVENUES* 26
TABLE 3: IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK* 27
TABLE 4: DATA CENTER SYSTEMS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICES
FORECAST 2021 42
TABLE 5: SPENDING/ INVESTMENT/(POSSIBLE) ACQUISITION TRENDS 48
TABLE 6: US CHIPS ACT PROVISIONS 55
TABLE 7: 2021 SLURRY MARKET LEADERS AND TAM BY APPLICATION 97
TABLE 8: TABLE OF 2021 SLURRY SUPPLIERS 120
TABLE 9: TABLE OF 2021 ABRASIVE SUPPLIERS 124
TABLE 10: CMP PAD SUPPLIERS 146
TABLE 11: PHYSICAL AND ELECTRICAL PROPERTY COMPARISON OF
SI AND SIC 358


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