칩 확장 (Chip Expansion) 미국 화학 공급망에 미치는 영향 조사보고서

Report Overview

TECHCET 「칩 확장 (Chip Expansion) 미국 화학 공급망에 미치는 영향 조사보고서 – Impact of Chip Expansion on US Chemical Supply-Chain」는 미국의 칩 확장이 화학품 공급망에 미치는 영향에 대해 조사·분석하고 있습니다. 또한 관련 재료 공급망의 과제와 동향, 공급업체의 시장 점유율에 대한 평가, 재료 세그먼트 예측 등을 제공합니다.

주요 게재 내용

• 이그제큐티브 요약
• 최신 상황
• 현재까지의 예측 변화
• 공급, 수요, 생산 능력
  • 이 보고서에서 사용되는 용어 정의
  • 재료 수요 성장을 촉진하는 반도체 개발
  • 예상 용량 부족
  • 화학품 수요 예측, 제조 능력, 격차
  • 순도 개요
  • 국내 공장 전개 계획 가속
  • 습식 화학(WET CHEMICAL) 유형별 수요 추이
  • 화학품 수요는 75% 증가
  • 습식 화학(WET CHEMICAL) 의 수급 예측
  • 황산 (H2SO)의 전망
  • 미국에서 UHP H2SO4 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 이소 프로필 알코올 (IPA) 전망
  • UHP IPA 56 미국 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 과산화수소 (H2O2) 전망
  • 미국에서 UHP H2O2 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 염산 (HCL) 전망
  • UHP HCL의 미국 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 수산화암모늄(NH4OH) 전망
  • UHP NH4OH의 미국 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 불화 수소산 (HF)의 전망
  • UHP HF의 미국 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 인산 (H3PO4) 전망
  • UHP H3PO4의 미국 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 질산 (HNO3) 전망
  • 미국에서 UHP HNO3 수입 및 시장 상황
  • 주요 공급자 개요
• 예상되는 시장조정
• 수출 관계와 도전
• 구현 및 순도
• TECHCET이 예상한 위험과 기회 평가

Report Oveview

• Provides focused information on US wet chemical demand vs. supply including volumes, revenues, wafer start demand and ranking of leading US chip fabricators.
• Who should get this report? Business Development Managers, Supply-Chain Managers, Financial Investment/Advisors, anyone interested in understanding the dynamic of the US Semiconductor Supply-Chains that support chip manufacturing.
• Single User License – provides 1 portal access login to techcet.com for one person, using 2FA (two-factor authentication). The 1 user has freedom to use any of the data in the purchased report for internal or external presentations, with proper copyright attribution.*

보도 자료

US Chip Expansions in Need of Significant Materials Support

October 31, 2023

Domestic chemical demand to leap through 2027, though supply is not prepared

San Diego, CA, October 31, 2023: TECHCET — the electronic materials advisory firm providing market and supply-chain information — is forecasting US demand for the bulk chemical sector to increase by a combined 75% by 2027. The anticipated demand jump is due to announced fab expansions coming on-line and increasing wafer start capacities. Over the next 4 years, TECHCET is expecting domestic wafer start capacity to potentially jump to 46M in 2027, a 35% increase from the 34M wafer starts expected in 2023. As these wafer start numbers increase, material demands will escalate creating a gap in the supply needed to support the industry, as demonstrated in TECHCET’s Special Report on The Impact of Chip Expansions on US Chemical Supply Chains.

While the movement to more advanced devices will have a strong impact on US material requirements, recent announcements indicate that legacy (mature) node manufacturing will also drive domestic materials demand. Advanced node device manufacturing (14nm and smaller nodes) will drive an increase in high purity requirements, in addition to volume growth.

Over the 2023-2027 forecast period, domestic chemical production capacity is expected to increase slightly, but not enough to cover all chemical needs. Building a chemical plant to support semiconductor quality chemicals typically takes 2-3 years to come online, so there may be shortages experienced as soon as 2024 if new capacity is not running. Currently, imports cover a significant portion of the overall US wet chemical demand, especially for ultra-high purity (UHP) quality wet chemicals. If domestic supply is not ramped to support expansions, this reliance on imports will grow, creating vulnerabilities and ancillary issues for the domestic semiconductor supply chain.

H2SO4, IPA, HCl, HF, HNO3, and H3PO4 will all need boosts in domestic supply in order to meet demand from new fabs. Kanto/Chemtrade ha announced plans to expand on H2SO4, however, the timing of plant build and production is yet uncertain. Currently, UHP material is largely supported by qualified suppliers in Taiwan. Details on anticipated gaps in supply and volume requirements by purity grade can be found in TECHCET’s report on the “Impact of Chip Expansions on the US Wet Chemical Supply Chain” here: https://techcet.com/product/impact-of-chip-expansion-on-us-chemical-supply-chain-2/.

ABOUT TECHCET: TECHCET CA LLC is an advisory services firm expert in market and supply-chain analysis of electronic materials for the semiconductor, display, solar/PV, and LED industries. TECHCET offers consulting, subscription service, and reports, including the Critical Materials Council (CMC) of semiconductor fabricators and Data Subscription Service (DSS).

Table of Contents

1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11

1.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – EXPANSIONS HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WAFER STARTS 12
1.2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – CHEMICAL DEMAND GROW ACCELERATES 13
1.3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – MATERIALS INCREASES ACROSS THE SPECTRUM 14
1.4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 15
1.5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – IMPORT DEPENDENCIES 16
1.6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – BY CHEMICAL (NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 2022) 17
1.7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – “IMPORT FIRST, BUILD LATER” 18

2.0 THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS 19

2.1 SHRINKING DOMESTIC MANUFACTURING 20
2.2 GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY COUNTRY 21
2.3 GLOBAL DYNAMICS IMPACT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 22
2.4 MATERIAL MARKETS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT 23
2.5 IMPACT OF US CHIP EXPANSION ON WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 24
2.6 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND INCREASE LED BY LOGIC MANUFACTURING 25
2.7 ADVANCED DEVICES DRIVE MATERIALS INCREASES 26
2.8 CURRENT SUPPLIERS – SUPPLY CHAIN CHARACTERISTICS 27
2.8.1 CURRENT SUPPLIERS – MARKET RANKINGS 28
2.8.2 CURRENT SUPPLIERS – MARKET DYNAMICS 29
2.8.2 CURRENT SUPPLIERS – MARKET DYNAMICS, CONTINUED 30

3.0 THE FORECAST CHANGES TO THE STATUS QUO 31

3.1 ANNOUNCED AND PLANNED FAB EXPANSIONS UPDATE 32
3.2 CHIPS AND SCIENCE ACT OF 2022 35
3.3 CHIPS ACT PROVISIONS 36
3.4 NEW FABS IN THE US 37
3.5 US FAB/PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 38
3.6 US CHIP EXPANSION EFFECT ON CAPACITY 39
3.7 CHIP EXPANSION CHANGES IN WET CHEMICAL DEMAND 40
3.8 WET CHEMICAL DEMAND – A STRONG MESSAGE TO SUPPLIERS 41

4.0 SUPPLY, DEMAND & CAPACITY 42

4.1 DEFINITIONS OF THE TERMS USED THROUGHOUT THIS REPORT 43
4.2 SEMICONDUCTOR EXPANSION DRIVES MATERIALS DEMAND GROWTH 44
4.3 CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 45
4.4 CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST, MANUFACTURING CAPABILITIES & GAP 46
4.5 PURITY OVERVIEW 47
4.6 DOMESTIC FAB EXPANSION PLANS ACCELERATE 48
4.7 DEMAND GROWTH BY WET CHEMICAL TYPE 49
4.8 CHEMICAL VOLUME DEMAND GROWS BY 75% 50
4.9 WET CHEMICAL SUPPLY/DEMAND FORECASTS 51
4.9.1 SULFURIC ACID (H2SO ) OUTLOOK 52
4.9.1.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2SO4 53
4.9.1.2 H2SO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE 54
4.9.2 ISOPROPYL ALCOHOL (IPA) OUTLOOK 55
4.9.2.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP IPA 56
4.9.2.2 IPA US MARKET LANDSCAPE 57
4.9.3 HYDROGEN PEROXIDE (H2O2) OUTLOOK 58
4.9.3.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H2O2 59
4.9.3.2 H2O2 US MARKET LANDSCAPE 60
4.9.4 HYDROCHLORIC ACID (HCL) OUTLOOK 61
4.9.4.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HCL 62
4.9.4.2 HCL US MARKET LANDSCAPE 63
4.9.5 AMMONIUM HYDROXIDE (NH4OH) OUTLOOK 64
4.9.5.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP NH4OH 65
4.9.5.2 NH4OH US MARKET LANDSCAPE 66
4.9.6 HYDROFLUORIC ACID (HF) OUTLOOK 67
4.9.6.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HF 68
4.9.6.2 HF US MARKET LANDSCAPE 69
4.9.7 PHOSPHORIC ACID (H3PO4) OUTLOOK 70
4.9.7.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP H3PO4 71
4.9.7.2 H3PO4 US MARKET LANDSCAPE 72
4.9.8 NITRIC ACID (HNO3) OUTLOOK 73
4.9.8.1 US IMPORTS OF UHP HNO3 74
4.9.8.2 HNO3 US MARKET LANDSCAPE 75
4.10 KEY SUPPLIERS SUMMARY 76

5.0 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 77

5.1 ANTICIPATED MARKET ADJUSTMENTS 78
5.2 ANTICIPATED ACTIONS 79
5.3 SUPPLIER US PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 80
5.4 THE SAMSUNG/TSMC EFFECT 83
5.5 COMMENTS FROM THE PARTICIPANTS 84

6.0 DEPENDENCIES & CHALLENGES OF IMPORTS 87

6.1 US DEPENDENCE ON WET CHEMICAL IMPORTS 88
6.2 A CHANGING IMPORT PICTURE 89
6.3 “TO IMPORT OR NOT TO IMPORT, THAT IS THE QUESTION” 91

7.0 PACKAGING & PURITY 95

7.1 EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 96
7.2 ULTRA HIGH PURITY DEMANDS – A LIABILITY OR OPPORTUNITY? 97
7.3 CHEMICAL PURITY TRENDS 98
7.3.1 EVER INCREASING PURITY REQUIREMENTS 99
7.4 SHIP TO CONTROL & EVOLVING REQUIREMENTS 100

8.0 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT OF RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 101

8.1 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT – GENERAL OBSERVATIONS 102
8.2 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT – INTERNATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS 103
8.3 TECHCET’S ASSESSMENT – SUPPLIER CONCERNS 104

APPENDIX A: MANUFACTURING UHP CHEMICALS 105

Figures

FIGURE 1: 2023 US CHIP FAB CAPACITY – 33.9 M WAFERS (200MM EQUIV.) 12
FIGURE 2: 2027 US CHIP FAB CAPACITY – 46.4 M WAFERS (200MM EQUIV.) 12
FIGURE 3: US ANNUAL WAFER CAPACITY FORECAST 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV.) 14
FIGURE 4: SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD US EXPORTS 20
FIGURE 5: US SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS STRONG, DESPITE LIMITED MANUFACTURING PRESENCE. (REVENUES AS A PERCENT
OF TOTAL SALES BY HQ LOCATION) 21
FIGURE 6: 2022 GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS MARKET BY SEGMENT (US$71.7B) 23
FIGURE 7: US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND BY CHIP FABRICATOR 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 24
FIGURE 8: US WAFER START CAPACITY FOR LOGIC DEVICES BY NODE, 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 25
FIGURE 9: US WAFER CAPACITY FOR MEMORY DEVICES BY NODE, 2023-2027 (200MM EQUIV. WAFERS) 26
FIGURE 10: SEMICONDUCTOR DEMAND AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL 30
FIGURE 11: INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL CHIP EXPANSIONS 2022-2027 ($500 B USD) 32
FIGURE 12: US CHIP EXPANSIONS 2023-2027 37
FIGURE 13: CHIP EXPANSION EXPECTED TO GROW ANNUAL CAPACITY >35% TO 46.4M (200MM EQUIV.) 39
FIGURE 14: WET CHEMICAL DEMAND WILL RISE 75% FROM LEADING CHIP FABS 2023-2027 41
FIGURE 15: US WAFER START GROWTH BY DEVICE TYPE AND NODE 48
FIGURE 16: US 2023 – 2027 US WET CHEMICAL DEMAND FORECAST 49
FIGURE 17: US H2SO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MKG) 52
FIGURE 18: US H2SO4 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 53
FIGURE 19: US H2SO4: 71% GROWTH, 11% CAGR 54
FIGURE 20: US SUPPLY VS. DEMAND VOLUME (MKG) 55
FIGURE 21: US IPA UHP GRADE – INCREASING DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 56
FIGURE 22: US IPA VOLUME DEMAND 92% GROWTH 14% CAGR 57
FIGURE 23: US H2O2 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG) 58
FIGURE 24: US H2O2 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 59
FIGURE 25: US H2O2 US VOLUME DEMAND 80% GROWTH 13% CAGR 60
FIGURE 26: US HCL SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG) 61
FIGURE 27: US HCL UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 62
FIGURE 28: US HCI US DEMAND 70% GROWTH 11% CAGR 63
FIGURE 29: US NH4OH SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG) 64
FIGURE 30 US NH4OH UHP GRADE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 65
FIGURE 31: US NH4OH US VOLUME DEMAND 77% GROWTH 12% CAGR 66
FIGURE 32: US HF SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG) 67
FIGURE 33: US HF UHP GRADEDEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 68
FIGURE 34: US HF VOLUME DEMAND 59% GROWTH, 10% CAGR 69
FIGURE 35: US H3PO4 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG) 70
FIGURE 36: US H3PO4 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTS 71
FIGURE 37: US H3PO4 US VOLUME DEMAND79% GROWTH, 12% CAGR 72
FIGURE 38: US HNO3 SUPPLY VS. DEMAND (MKG) 73
FIGURE 39: US HNO3 UHP GRADE – DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS 74
FIGURE 40: US HNO3 US VOLUME DEMAND 33% GROWTH, 6% CAGR 75
FIGURE 41: RENDERING OF TSMC’S ARIZONA FACILITY 78
FIGURE 42: CHINA TO US OCEAN FREIGHT EXPORT PRICE TRENDS 79
FIGURE 43: SHIP TO CONTROL FOR PROCESS CHEMICALS EXAMPLE 100

Tables

TABLE 1: CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2023-2027 13
TABLE 2: US WET CHEMICAL EXCESS/SHORTFALLS EXPECTED 15
TABLE 3: DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTS ON IMPORTS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL DOMESTIC CAPACITY 16
TABLE 4: US DOMESTIC TIER I TOP 3 SUPPLIERS BY VOLUME SUPPLIED 28
TABLE 5: US FAB RAMP FORECAST (200MM EQUIV.) 38
TABLE 6: WET CHEMICALS WITH THE HIGHEST DEMAND GROWTH IN THE US 2027/2023 44
TABLE 7: CAPACITY SHORTFALLS EXPECTED (SAME AS TABLE 2) 45
TABLE 8: UHP AND IC GRADE SPLIT USED FOR GRAPHS 46
TABLE 9: US SEMICONDUCTOR CHEMICAL VOLUME GROWTH 2027/2023 50
TABLE 10: SUMMARY OF KEY US SUPPLIERS 76
TABLE 11: SUPPLIER US CHEMICAL PLANT EXPANSION ACTIVITY 81
TABLE 12: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS 85
TABLE 13: 2027 IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF UHP AND TOTAL DEMAND 89
TABLE 14: INCREASING DEPENDENCY OF UHP PRODUCTSON IMPORTS 90
TABLE 15: EVOLVING PACKAGING REQUIREMENTS 96
TABLE 16: PURITY REQUIREMENTS 99
TABLE 17: COMMENTS FROM THE SELECTED PARTICIPANTS 109